Author Archives: Dr.K

About Dr.K

Dr. Ahmet Karagozoglu is the C.V. Starr Distinguished Professor of Finance & Investment Banking and the Academic Director of Martin B. Greenberg Trading Room at Zarb School of Business of Hofstra University

Why Social Distancing Works: A better illustration using matches

A simple (home-made) illustration of why social distancing helps slow the spread of COVID-19. For social distancing to be effective, everyone should practice it and personal space between individuals should be kept at maximum during limited encounters.
It starts with one person but #OneIsNotEnough Why #DistanceMatters

#socialdistancing #coronavirus #covid19 #pandemic

Presidental Debate September 26, 2016

hofstradebate2016

Hofstra University  is hosting the first presidental debate of 2016 election cycle   between the Democratic candiate Hillary H. Clinton  and the Republican candidate Donal J. Trum . This is the third presidential debate in a row that Hofstra University is hosting!!! Previusly Hofstra was the host for the last debate of election cycle, on October 15, 2008,  between Barack Obama and John McCain; and the second debate-townhall format style-, of election cycle, on October 16, 2012, between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney).

A Primer on How Currency Manipulation Worked – NYTimes.com

A Primer on How Currency Manipulation Worked – NYTimes.com. “The Fix” Video

Finance professionals (including academics) should start replacing some terms, which may date back a century, used in our field. One example is the widely used term “fix” that refers to the determination of market-clearing (in economics terms equilibrium, i.e. when demand equals supply) price and/or rate. Recent multi-billion legal settlements regulators achieved show that the processes of “silver fix”, “gold fix” and “currency fix” were (allegedly?) manipulated by the market participants, i.e. banks and dealers. In Main Street, the word “fix” may carry a bad connatation (e.g. “game was fixed”). Why should Wall Street continue using terms which may suggest that financial markets may be unfair, especially when the recent events bolstered potential notion of this unfairness since some big banks, dealers and traders are charged with “fixing the fixes” or “manipulating the fixes”! These reinforce the bad connatation some finance terms may carry, “silver or currency fix was fixed”!!!

#currencyfix, #thefix, #manipulation, #fixingthefix

Hofstra Zarb School’s MS Finance Program is ranked 43rd by The Financial Engineer

2015 Finance Rankings | The Financial Engineer.

Hofstra's Master of Science in Finance Program is ranked 43rd nationally by The Financial Engineer. Hofstra’s Master of Science in Finance program is ranked 43rd nationally by The Financial Engineer. One of the more successful tracks of Zarb’s MS Finance program is its Risk Management concentration. Dr. Karagozoglu hopes that this success will encourage financial regulators – the SEC, CFTC, OCC, FINRA and the Fed- as well as the exchanges to hire top ranked risk management degree holders from Hofstra University’s Zarb School of Business.

Hofstra University GARP Chapter Meeting – Common Challenges in the Development of a Statistical Credit-Worthiness Model Wed. Nov 12th 6-8pm

Hofstra GARP – Chapter Meeting Registration Link

Hofstra University GARP-Global Association of Risk Professionals Chapter and HQT-Hofstra Quants & Traders will be co-hosting a seminar on Wednesday November 12, 2014 from 6pm to 8pm in the Martin B. Greenberg Trading Room at CV Starr Hall.

Topic: “Common Challenges in the Development of a Statistical Credit-Worthiness Model”

Speaker: Alma Chen, Associate Director, Head of Analytic Development Group Americas, S&P Capital IQ®,

In this presentation, Alma Chen will cover the type of model to be considered in credit risk segment; how to collect the right ingredients for the model and the methodologies; and how to measure the performance, and will conclude with a discussion.

This event is free for GARP members, please register at GARP’s website using the link above.

#creditmodeling #creditrisk #creditratings

Why High-Frequency Trading Is So Hard to Regulate – NYTimes.com

Why High-Frequency Trading Is So Hard to Regulate – NYTimes.com.

Peter J. Henning writes in NYTimes.com’s DealBook that “The challenge in pursuing charges against these firms is that they are taking advantage of changes in the technology underpinning the markets to profit from quick trades, which is not illegal. But regulators can find it difficult to draw the line between acceptable trading strategies and manipulation because of the complexity of the strategies.”

However, detecting market manipulation (either potential or attempted) has always been challenging since the beginning of financial markets. Regulators’ timely access to detailed data on security market transactions is the key in successful market surveillance. Advances in market microstructure technology makes this task much easier today compared to the paper based trading of the past. Regulators should be able to view all the details of market transactions in real-time, especially for the exchange traded instrument since everything is in the electronic records of the exchanges. Imposing new rules to require market participants submit detailed transactions data after-the-fact feels like regulatory responses of the last century.

In his 2011 Review of Futures Markets publication, Dr. Ahmet Karagozoglu suggests that regulators (and self-regulators) should design their own “market surveillance algorithms” and “co-locate” with exchanges’ matching engines in order to facilitate detection and rapid respond to improper trading activity that might be taking place at extreme speeds. Number of Quants, Financial Engineers, Risk Modelers and Algo Developers employed by the regulatory agencies need to increase dramatically (at the least should be close to the number of lawyers and legal staff)! Regulators’ market surveillance algorithms should rival in their speed and complexity the trading strategies used by market participants.

 

FINRA addressing market risks: HFT, Algo’s, CARDS, CAT & dark pools

FINRA addressing market risks: HFT, Algo’s, CARDS, CAT & dark pools*

Carlo di Florio Remarks at NSCP 2014 National Conference – FINRA.

In Lexelogy.com*, Thomas K. Potter, III of Burr & Forman LLP discusses Carlo DiFlorio’s, FINRA’s Chief Risk Officer and Head of Strategy, remarkes at “the annual meeting of the National Society of Compliance Professionals Monday that FINRA is emphasizing efforts to mitigate market risks, even as it regards US capital-market integrity as at its strongest historically.

HFT & Algorithmic Trading: DiFlorio addressed thee initiatives.  First, FINRA examiners are focusing on firms’ supervision of HFT and algorithmic trading, including pre-implementation testing and firm-wide “kill switch” procedures when something goes awry. Second, FINRA’s Board decided at its September meeting to propose a rule requiring FINRA registration by those who develop, design or significantly modify trading algorithms.  The Staff  is drafting a proposed rule for comment. Third, FINRA is working on additional guidance on existing supervisory obligations for algorithmic trading. Market Surveillance & Big Data: FINRA also is working to boost its market-surveillance capabilities.  FINRA’s surveillance systems monitor for 29 cross-market patterns attuned to 55 threat scenarios.  When current initiatives are complete, FINRA surveillance will cover 90% of markets. Second,  FINRA is one of final bidders under consideration by the SEC for a new Consolidated Audit Trail (“CAT”) processor to improve “data mining” of information across markets. Third, FINRA is working to increase transparency of dark-pool and other alternative markets, including expanding FINRA’s disclosure of Alternative Trading System (“ATS”) volume data. Fourth, FINRA’s second CARDS (comprehensive automated risk data system) proposal is out for comment until December 1.  The proposed Rule would standardize and automate a broad range of securities account and transaction data from clearing (and later fully disclosed introducing) firms.  It is another effort to assemble more easily mined “big data” for industry-wide surveillance and compliance.”

Burr & Furman’s Blog

Is HFT pushing smaller traders out of the markets?

Is HFT pushing smaller traders out of the markets?.

In this op-ed, the author claims that “the ‘market makers’ … are being driven out”. However, if you visited the floor of the NYSE during the last several years, you know that all market makers i.e. specialist firms, are making markets using algorithms. This enables them to post more efficient quotes and provide liquidity faster. As HFT-High Frequency Trading activity increases these specialist firms make their market making algorithms faster, otherwise they will not be able to compete. This fact is no different in any other business. If airlines don’t upgrade their planes or if ISPs don’t upgrade their communication networks to faster speeds, they will not be competitive in their industries and will be “driven out”.

Speed trader fined $1 million for Nasdaq manipulation scheme

Speed trader fined $1 million for Nasdaq manipulation scheme.

Dr. Ahmet Karagozoglu says this closing price manipulation reminds him why closing prices are different from settlement prices in futures markets. In light of Athena Capital Research LLC case he suggests that, to prevent closing price manipulation in stock markets, regulators and stock changes should learn from the rules of futures exchanges.

Historically, futures exchanges in the U.S. and abroad have been concerned about potential manipulation of closing prices each trading day. Since margin accounts are marked-to-market at the end of each trading day, exchanges had established rules to prevent the negative effect of unfounded quotes and trades during the closing minutes (seconds) of trading on the margin account settlements. Thus, we have both closing and settlement price in futures markets. Exchange rules describe how the end-of-day settlement prices are determined in order to prevent closing price manipulations which are attempted to generate unfair margin profits.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) says with “high-powered computers, complex algorithms and rapid-fire trades,” the New York-based firm tainted closing prices used by fund managers to track their performance.